Ninguém sabe exatamente qual a extensão dos efeitos que o uso da I.A. terá sobre todos nós.

Entretanto, se você já teve algum contato com deep learning, machine learning, rede neural e afins, por mais simples que este contato tenha sido, é possível chegar a algumas possíveis conclusões.

Bem, algumas conclusões são verdadeiras. Outras nem tanto. É preciso entender a razão de existência das I.As para descobrir onde terão um maior impacto.

É sobre isso que falaremos hoje: qual será o impacto da inteligência artificial na sociedade? Quem sairá ganhando, quem sairá perdendo?

Como funciona a tecnologia mais temida do século? Leia o artigo 🙂

IA não é automação

Antes de qualquer coisa é necessário diferenciar a ideia antiga de automatização de I.A. Esta última vai muito além de automatização de processos. Automatização, via de regra, é a otimização de um processo repetitivo, braçal, através de aparatos mecânicos.

Esta é uma definição um pouco grosseira, eu sei, mas servirá para construir meu argumento.Pense em uma plantação de pés de laranja. Pensou? Ok.

Agora pense nos catadores de laranja. Pensou? Ok.

Agora pense em máquinas colheitadeiras de laranja substituindo esses catadores de laranja.

Vamos fazer uma pausa.

As máquinas colheitadeiras de laranja substituem os humanos com certa facilidade. Quanto mais eficientes forem estas máquinas menos pessoas serão necessárias nessa plantação.

A extinção de funções automáticas

Agora pense em todas as laranjas colhidas. Será que todas elas têm a mesma qualidade? A resposta intuitiva é não.

Para escolher as laranjas que não estão maduras existem as pessoas que separam as laranjas boas das laranjas ruins.

Intuitivamente, pode-se pensar que só um ser humano poderia identificar a qualidade de uma laranja. Isso é feito, basicamente, por meio do tato, da visão e do cheiro.

A conclusão inicial é, nesta atividade não é possível substituir o ser humano, certo? Não ERA possível, mas agora é.

Inteligência artificial: como funciona?

Como é que uma máquina consegue concluir que uma laranja está no ponto ideal?

Isso envolve, basicamente, a transformação de milhares de fotos de laranjas consideradas adequadas ou não – em geral utilizando R,G,B (red, green, blue) como elemento unitário do vetor – e a construção de modelos de predição.

Esses modelos de predição dirão qual a probabilidade de cara laranja analisada estar no ponto ideal. Esse é um dos carros chefes da IA da IBM, chamada Watson.

Métodos preditivos x humanos

E como é que o algoritmo sabe o que é bom e o que é ruim. Afinal, o algoritmo pensa? Não. Este é um exemplo clássico de dados não estruturados (imagens, sons, textos) treinados sob a supervisão de um ser humano.

Alguém olhou cada foto de laranja e classificou OK/Não OK. Isto leva a um modelo probabilístico. O algoritmo “aprende” por meio do input de um ser humano. Não existe mágica nesse caso. Está ficando um pouco complicado, não é?

Vamos dar um pause na parte técnica.

O fato é que uma atividade que envolve uma habilidade inata e sutil do ser humano, que é discernir se um fruto está maduro ou não, foi absorvida por uma máquina.

A automatização diminui drasticamente a necessidade de catadores. E a I.A., por sua vez, diminui de maneira importante a necessidade de separadores de laranja.

São duas revoluções diferentes, mas que parecem iguais. Uma é a automatização, iniciada por Henry Ford. A outra é a I.A., que tem sua primeira grande aparição ao público com o advento do Deep Blue (computador que venceu Garry Kasparov em 1996).

Certo. Acho que até aqui já tivemos uma ideia, ainda que rasa, do potencial de mudança dessa tal I.A..

Vamos avançar um pouco mais.

O real impacto da Inteligência Artificial na sociedade

A tecnologia extingue postos de trabalho, mas cria outros” – é o que você ouviu durante toda a sua vida. A frase é verdadeira, mas não é toda a verdade.

As atividades braçais serão transferidas para as máquinas, deixando para os humanos as atividades intelectuais”.

Huummm, ok. Mas e quando um algoritmo absorve o conhecimento sutil do ser humano, como a identificação do estilo de um texto, o reconhecimento de faces ou a identificação de um câncer? Para citar apenas algumas coisas.

Se tanto a atividade braçal, não-sutil, como certas atividades que exigem habilidades sutis do ser humano estão sendo absorvidas por máquinas e algoritmos, o que impede que este processo continue indefinidamente?

O que impedirá a migração de sofisticados modelos estatísticos que não representam inteligência real, para a verdadeira inteligência? E, em última instância, para máquinas sencientes?

OK, ok, estamos sendo um pouco apocalípticos.

Entretanto, não parece claro que esta nova tecnologia, chamada erroneamente de I.A., já está tendo e terá um impacto, em nossa sociedade, muito mais avassalador do que uma simples automatização?

Modelos de aprendizagem são inteligência?

O modelo de aprendizagem por regressão é um utilizado em um tipo de algoritmo de machine learning. Aqui, a decisão é tomada por meio de dados já coletados.

Ou seja, por meio de predição. A regressão usa os dados já coletados para tentar prever alguma coisa.

E isso, bem, isso não é inteligência. Isso é visualização de um padrão.

Particularmente, eu acho que o I do I.A. não é verdadeiro. Por que digo isso? Sabe aquele exemplo do quarto chinês?

Uma pessoa dentro de um quarto, que não fala chinês, possui uma lista com perguntas e respostas em chinês. Alguém, por uma pequena entrada, insere uma pergunta em chinês.

A pessoa, dentro do quarto, vai até a lista, procura a pergunta e acha uma resposta. Como ela consegue isso?

Comparando o formato dos ideogramas. Não existe entendimento nem da pergunta e nem da resposta, apenas uma comparação de formatos. Então, pela mesma abertura, a pessoa dentro do quarto coloca um papel com a resposta.

Para quem fez a pergunta, a ideia de que quem está dentro do quarto fala chinês é bastante clara. Mas isso é falso.

Quem respondeu corretamente à pergunta não fala chinês. Os processos cognitivos de tradução e interpretação da pergunta não ocorreram de verdade.

Conclusão

O que percebemos como inteligência, na IA, nada mais é que um processo mecânico que emula inteligência.

Esse negócio de inteligência e senciência (que é a capacidade intrínseca do ser de saber que existe) é bem complicado e demandaria algumas centenas de milhares de páginas para serem explicados.

Desta forma, vamos finalizar com um exemplo que, para mim, é bastante preocupante.

Imagine que comecemos a utilizar I.A. para decidir a pena a ser atribuída para pessoas que infringiram a lei de alguma forma.

Esta decisão será feita com base nos autos, na lei, e em decisões passadas dos maiores e mais renomados juízes do país. Até aqui parece que está tudo bem, não é?

Só tem um problema. E se as decisões do passado tiveram algum tipo de viés, isto é, maiores penas para pessoas de ascendência notadamente africana. O que você acha que vai acontecer com as decisões dessa I.A?

A frase de Elon Musk é um pouco assustadora:

“With artificial intelligence we are summoning the demon”

Ainda assim, como estudante de I.A. há alguns anos, percebo que há um hype e um deslumbramento com a tecnologia, por parte de nós programadores e técnicos em geral, que está nos impedindo de refletir a respeito dos aspectos morais deste novo paradigma.

Afinal, até onde é possível substituir às atividades desempenhadas por humanos sem que isso se volte contra nós mesmos?

Artigo original: http://blog.geekhunter.com.br/inteligencia-artificial-na-sociedade/


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